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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-88
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-88
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: esd ideas 17 Jan 2020

Submitted as: esd ideas | 17 Jan 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC AR6

Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins
  • National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK

Abstract. Policy making on climate change routinely employs socio-economic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the IPCC has not developed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here we argue that to enable development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.

Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins

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Status: open (until 31 Mar 2020)
Status: open (until 31 Mar 2020)
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Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins

Rowan T. Sutton and Ed Hawkins

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Latest update: 24 Feb 2020
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Short summary
Policy making on climate change routinely employs socio-economic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has not developed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here we argue that to enable development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.
Policy making on climate change routinely employs socio-economic scenarios to sample the...
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