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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 26 Sep 2019

Submitted as: research article | 26 Sep 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

On the time evolution of ENSO and its teleconnections in an ensemble view – a new perspective

Tímea Haszpra1,2,*, Mátyás Herein1,2,*, and Tamás Bódai3,4 Tímea Haszpra et al.
  • 1Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
  • 2MTA–ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
  • 3Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
  • 4Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Republic of Korea
  • *These authors contributed equally to this work.

Abstract. The changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and its precipitation-related teleconnections over the Globe under climate change are investigated in the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble from 1950 to 2100. For the investigation, a recently developed ensemble-based method, the snapshot empirical orthogonal function (SEOF) analysis is used. The instantaneous ENSO pattern is defined as the leading mode of the SEOF analysis carried out at a given time instant over the ensemble. The corresponding principal components (PC1s) characterize the ENSO phases. We find that the largest amplitude changes in the variability of the sea surface temperature fields occur in the June–July–August–September (JJAS) season, in the Niño3–Niño3.4 region and in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean, however, the increase is also considerable along the Equator in December–January–February (DJF). The Niño3 amplitude shows also an increase of about 20 % and 10 % in JJAS and DJF, respectively. The strength of the precipitation-related teleconnections of the ENSO is found to be non-stationary, as well. For example, the anti-correlation with precipitation in Australia in JJAS and the positive correlation in Central and North Africa in DJF are predicted to be more pronounced by the end of the 21th century. Half-year-lagged correlations, aiming to predict precipitation conditions from ENSO phases, are also studied. The Australian, Indonesian precipitation and that of the eastern part of Africa in both JJAS and DJF seem to be well predictable based on ENSO phase, while the South Indian precipitation is in relation with the half-year previous ENSO phase only in DJF. The strength of these connections increases, especially from the African region to the Arabian Peninsula.

Tímea Haszpra et al.
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Tímea Haszpra et al.
Tímea Haszpra et al.
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Publications Copernicus
Short summary
We investigate the changes in the ENSO phenomenon and the alterations of its precipitation-related teleconnections in the CESM-LE. To avoid the disadvantages of the subjective choices of traditional temporal methods, we use an ensemble-based snapshot framework providing instantaneous quantities computed over the ensemble dimension of the simulation. We find that ENSO teleconnections undergo considerable changes and the ENSO amplitude remarkably increases by 2100.
We investigate the changes in the ENSO phenomenon and the alterations of its...