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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-45
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-45
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: research article 05 Sep 2019

Submitted as: research article | 05 Sep 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

Detecting breakpoints in global temperature

Junbo Duan1, Lanling Zhao1, Qing Wang2, and Pei Li3 Junbo Duan et al.
  • 1Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education and the Department of Biomedical Engineering, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, China
  • 2School of Electronic Engineering, Xidian University, Xi'an, 710071, China
  • 3School of Earth Science, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China

Abstract. This paper aims to address the continuous debate of whether a hiatus occurred in the turn of this century. Several models have been employed to fit the global mean surface temperature data, and the results suggest that the allegation of an occurrence of hiatus lacks statistical evidence. However, these models had potential deficiencies in their capacity for detecting breakpoints, thereby weakening the arguments that deny the existence of a hiatus. To address this issue, we propose an improved sparse representation model, which can automatically segment and fit temperature records using piecewise polynomials. Simulations revealed improved detection performance; studies on five prominent global temperature records produced 2 to 6 breakpoints, none of which occurred after the year 1976, thus reinforcing arguments denying the existence of a 20th century hiatus.

Junbo Duan et al.
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Status: final response (author comments only)
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Short summary
The global warming is slowing down? There is a continuous debate of whether a hiatus occurred in the turn of this century. By using our proposed model, sparse representation with piecewise polynomials which can segment and fit curves automatically, results on five global mean surface temperature records suggest that the allegation of occurrence of hiatus lacks statistical evidence, and hence reinforce that the global warming is going on.
The global warming is slowing down? There is a continuous debate of whether a hiatus occurred in...
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