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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 14 May 2019

Research article | 14 May 2019

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

Impacts of land-use change and elevated CO2 on the interannual variations and seasonal cycles of gross primary productivity in China

Binghao Jia1,2,3, Xin Luo1, Ximing Cai3, Atul Jain4, Deborah N. Huntzinger5, Zhenghui Xie1, Ning Zeng1,6, Jiafu Mao7, Xiaoying Shi7, Akihiko Ito8, Yaxing Wei7, Hanqin Tian9, Benjamin Poulter10, Dan Hayes11, and Kevin Schaefer12 Binghao Jia et al.
  • 1State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 2Key Lab of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou, China
  • 3Ven Te Chow Hydrosystems Laboratory, Department of Civil and EnvironmentalEngineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA
  • 4Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA
  • 5School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability and Department of Civil Engineering Construction Management, and Environmental Engineering, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
  • 6Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
  • 7Environmental Sciences Division, Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
  • 8Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 9International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, USA
  • 10NASA GSFC, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD, USA
  • 11School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Orno, Maine, USA
  • 12National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Abstract. Climate change, rising CO2 concentration, and land use and land cover change (LULCC) are primary driving forces for terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), but their impacts on the temporal changes in GPP are confounded. In this study, the effects of the three main factors on the interannual variation (IAV) and seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) of GPP in China were investigated using 12 terrestrial biosphere models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project. The simulated ensemble mean value of China's GPP, driven by common climate forcing, LULCC, and CO2 data, was found to be 7.4 ± 1.8 Pg C yr−1, which was in close agreement with the independent upscaling GPP estimate (7.1 Pg C yr−1). In general, climate was the dominant control factor of the annual trends, IAV, and seasonality of China's GPP. The overall rising CO2 led to enhanced plant photosynthesis, thus increasing annual mean and IAV of China's total GPP, especially in northeastern and southern China where vegetation is dense. LULCC decreased the IAV of China's total GPP by ~ 7 %, whereas rising CO2 induced an increase of 8 %. Compared to climate change and elevated CO2, LULCC showed less contributions to GPP's temporal variation and its impact acted locally, mainly in southwestern China. Furthermore, this study also examined subregional contributions to the temporal changes in China's total GPP. Southern and southeastern China showed higher contributions to China's annual GPP, whereas southwestern and central parts of China explained larger fractions of the IAV in China's GPP.

Binghao Jia et al.
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Short summary
We quantitatively examined the relative contributions of climate change, LULCC, and elevated CO2 on the interannual variations and seasonal cycle amplitude of GPP in China based on multi-model ensemble simulations. Moreover, the contributions of major subregions to the temporal change in China's total GPP were also presented. This work is expected to help us better understand the temporal-spatial patterns of GPP and their responses to regional changes and human activities.
We quantitatively examined the relative contributions of climate change, LULCC, and elevated CO2...