Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 3.769 IF 3.769
  • IF 5-year value: 4.522 IF 5-year
    4.522
  • CiteScore value: 4.14 CiteScore
    4.14
  • SNIP value: 1.170 SNIP 1.170
  • SJR value: 2.253 SJR 2.253
  • IPP value: 3.86 IPP 3.86
  • h5-index value: 26 h5-index 26
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 22 Scimago H
    index 22
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-1
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-1
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 14 Feb 2019

Research article | 14 Feb 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

Millennium-length precipitation Reconstruction over South-eastern Asia: a Pseudo-Proxy Approach

Stefanie Talento1, Lea Schneider1, Johannes Werner2, and Jürg Luterbacher1,3 Stefanie Talento et al.
  • 1Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig-University of Giessen, Germany
  • 2Independent researcher
  • 3Center of International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University of Giessen, Giessen, Germany

Abstract. Quantifying hydroclimate variability beyond the instrumental period is essential for putting current and future fluctuations into long-term perspective and to provide a test-bed for evaluating climate simulations. For South-earstern Asia such quantifications are scarce and millennium-long attempts are still missing. In this study we take a pseudo-proxy approach to evaluate the potential for generating summer precipitation reconstructions over South-eastern Asia during the past millennium. The ability of a series of novel Bayesian approaches to generate reconstructions at either annual or decadal resolutions and under diverse scenarios of pseudo-proxy records' noise is analysed and compared to the classic Analogue Method.

We find that for all the algorithms and resolutions a high-density of pseudo-proxy information is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a successful reconstruction. Among the selected algorithms, the Bayesian techniques perform generally better than the Analogue Method, being the difference in abilities highest over the semi-arid areas and in the decadal-resolution framework. The superiority of the Bayesian schemes indicates that directly modelling the space and time precipitation field variability encapsulates more relevant value than just relying in similarities within a restricted pool of observational analogues, in which certain hydroclimatic regimes might be absent. Using a pseudo-proxy network with locations and noise-levels similar to the ones found in the real world, we conclude that performing a millennium-long precipitation reconstruction over South-eastern Asia is feasible as the Bayesian schemes provide skilful results over most of the target area.

Stefanie Talento et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 28 Mar 2019)
Status: open (until 28 Mar 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Stefanie Talento et al.
Model code and software

Millennium-length precipitation Reconstruction over South-eastern Asia: a Pseudo-Proxy Approach S. Talento https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/B2RXP

Stefanie Talento et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 211 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
170 37 4 211 6 6
  • HTML: 170
  • PDF: 37
  • XML: 4
  • Total: 211
  • BibTeX: 6
  • EndNote: 6
Views and downloads (calculated since 14 Feb 2019)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 14 Feb 2019)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 152 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 152 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 21 Mar 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Quantifying hydroclimate variability beyond the instrumental period is essential for putting fluctuations into long-term perspective and to provide a validation for climate models. We evaluate, in a virtual set-up, the potential for generating millennium-long summer precipitation reconstructions over South-eastern Asia. We find that performing a real-world reconstruction with the current available proxy network is indeed feasible, as virtual-world reconstructions are skilfull in most areas.
Quantifying hydroclimate variability beyond the instrumental period is essential for putting...
Citation