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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-80
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-80
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 12 Nov 2018

Research article | 12 Nov 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

Minimal dynamical systems model of the northern hemisphere jet stream via embedding of climate data

Davide Faranda1,2, Yuzuru Sato3,2, Gabriele Messori4,1, Nicholas R. Moloney5,2, and Pascal Yiou1 Davide Faranda et al.
  • 1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
  • 2London Mathematical Laboratory, 8 Margravine Gardens London, W6 8RH, UK
  • 3RIES / Department of Mathematics, Hokkaido University, Kita 20 Nichi 10, Kita-ku, Sapporo 001-0020, Japan
  • 4Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden
  • 5Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6AX, UK

Abstract. We derive a minimal dynamical model for the northern hemisphere mid-latitude jet dynamics by embedding atmospheric data, and investigate its properties (bifurcation structure, stability, local dimensions) for different atmospheric flow regimes. We derive our model according to the following steps: i) obtain a 1-D description of the mid-latitude jet-stream by computing the position of the jet at each longitude using the ERA-Interim reanalysis, ii) use the embedding procedure to derive a map of the local jet position dynamics, iii) introduce the coupling and stochastic effects deriving from both atmospheric turbulence and topographic disturbances to the jet. We then analyze the dynamical properties of the model in different regimes: i) one that gives the closest representation of the properties extracted from real data, ii) one featuring a stronger jet (strong coupling), iii) one featuring a weaker jet (low coupling), iv) modified topography. We argue that such a simple model provides a useful description of the dynamical properties of the atmospheric jet.

Davide Faranda et al.
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