Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 3.769 IF 3.769
  • IF 5-year value: 4.522 IF 5-year 4.522
  • CiteScore value: 4.14 CiteScore 4.14
  • SNIP value: 1.170 SNIP 1.170
  • SJR value: 2.253 SJR 2.253
  • IPP value: 3.86 IPP 3.86
  • h5-index value: 26 h5-index 26
  • Scimago H index value: 22 Scimago H index 22
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-79
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-79
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 16 Nov 2018

Research article | 16 Nov 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

The economically optimal warming limit of the planet

Falko Ueckerdt1, Katja Frieler1, Stefan Lange1, Leonie Wenz1,2,3, Gunnar Luderer1, and Anders Levermann1,4,5 Falko Ueckerdt et al.
  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
  • 2Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, USA
  • 3Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany
  • 4Columbia University, New York, USA
  • 5Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. Both climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation will incur economic costs. While the risk of severe damages increases with the level of global warming (Allen et al., 2018; Dell et al., 2014; IPCC, 2014b; Lenton et al., 2008), mitigating costs increase steeply with more stringent warming limits (Allen et al., 2018; IPCC, 2014a; Rogelj et al., 2015). Here we show that the global warming limit that minimizes this century's total economic costs of climate change lies between 1.9 and 2°C if temperature changes continue to impact national economic growth rates as observed in the past. The result is robust across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion. For our study we estimated climate change impacts on economic growth for 186 countries based on recent empirical insights (Burke et al., 2015a), and mitigation costs using a state-of-the-art energy-economy-climate model with a wide range of highly-resolved mitigation options. Our purely economic assessment, even though it omits non-monetary damages, provides support for the international Paris Agreement on climate change. The political goal of limiting global warming to “well below 2 degrees” is thus also an economically optimal goal.

Falko Ueckerdt et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 28 Dec 2018)
Status: open (until 28 Dec 2018)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
[Subscribe to comment alert] Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Falko Ueckerdt et al.
Falko Ueckerdt et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 444 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
366 74 4 444 5 5
  • HTML: 366
  • PDF: 74
  • XML: 4
  • Total: 444
  • BibTeX: 5
  • EndNote: 5
Views and downloads (calculated since 16 Nov 2018)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 16 Nov 2018)
Viewed (geographical distribution)  
Total article views: 422 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 419 with geography defined and 3 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Cited  
Saved  
No saved metrics found.
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 16 Dec 2018
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages and climate-change mitigation are minimal. This temperature is robustly around 2 degrees across a wide range of normative assumptions on the valuation of future welfare and inequality aversion.
We compute the global mean temperature increase at which the costs from climate-change damages...
Citation
Share