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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-43
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

ESD Ideas 25 Jun 2018

ESD Ideas | 25 Jun 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

ESD Ideas: The stochastic climate model shows that underestimated Holocene trends and variability represent two sides of the same coin

Gerrit Lohmann Gerrit Lohmann
  • 1Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
  • 2University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

Abstract. Holocene sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models as compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related which is elaborated in a conceptual framework of the stochastic climate model. The relation is a consequence of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, connecting the linear response of a system to its statistical fluctuations. Consequently, the spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity. The non-normality in the propagation operator introduces enhanced long-term variability related to non-equilibrium and/or Earth system sensitivity.

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Gerrit Lohmann
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Gerrit Lohmann
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Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models as compared to paleoclimate data. The idea is presented that the trends and variability are related which is elaborated in a conceptual model framework. The temperature spectrum can be used to estimate the timescale-dependent climate sensitivity.
Long-term sea surface temperature trends and variability are underestimated in models as...
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