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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-21
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
08 May 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Simulation of observed climate changes in 1850–2014 with climate model INM-CM5
Evgeny Volodin and Andrey Gritsun Institute for Numerical Mathematics, (INM RAS, Gubkina 8, Moscow 119333, Russia)
Abstract. Climate changes observed in 1850-2014 are modeled and studied on the basis of seven historical runs with the climate model INM-CM5 under the scenario proposed for Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6). In all runs global mean surface temperature rises by 0.8 K at the end of the experiment (2014) in agreement with the observations. Periods of fast warming in 1920–1940 and 1980–2000 as well as its slowdown in 1950–1975 and 2000–2014 are correctly reproduced by the ensemble mean. The notable change here with respect to the CMIP5 results is correct reproduction of the slowdown of global warming in 2000–2014 that we attribute to more accurate description of the Solar constant in CMIP6 protocol. The model is able to reproduce correct behavior of global mean temperature in 1980–2014 despite incorrect phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices in the majority of experiments. The Arctic sea ice loss in recent decades is reasonably close to the observations just in one model run; the model underestimates Arctic sea ice loss by the factor 2.5. Spatial pattern of model mean surface temperature trend during the last 30 years looks close the one for the ERA Interim reanalysis. Model correctly estimates the magnitude of stratospheric cooling.
Citation: Volodin, E. and Gritsun, A.: Simulation of observed climate changes in 1850–2014 with climate model INM-CM5, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-21, in review, 2018.
Evgeny Volodin and Andrey Gritsun
Evgeny Volodin and Andrey Gritsun
Evgeny Volodin and Andrey Gritsun

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Short summary
Climate changes of 1850–2014 are modeled with the climate model INM-CM5. Periods of fast warming in 1920–1940 and 1980–2000 as well as its slowdown in 1950–1975 and 2000–2014 are correctly reproduced by the model. The notable improvement with respect to the previous model version is correct reproduction of the slowdowns of global warming that we attribute to a new aerosol block in the model and more accurate description of the Solar constant in new (CMIP6) IPCC protocol.
Climate changes of 1850–2014 are modeled with the climate model INM-CM5. Periods of fast warming...
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