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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-2
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
08 Jan 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Jiawei Liu1,2, Haiming Xu1,2, and Jiechun Deng1,2 1Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/KLME/ILCEC, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
2College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Abstract. Much research is needed regarding two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity and associated precipitation changes under both warming targets are explored in this study. Multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5° and 2 °C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR) method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective to tighten the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, suppressed precipitation would appear over 30°–40° N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of western North Pacific high (WNPSH) and a southward shift of East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low level and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5° and 2 °C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, but a pronounced moisture increase during extra 0.5 °C leads to enhanced EASM precipitation over large areas in East Asia at 2 °C warming.
Citation: Liu, J., Xu, H., and Deng, J.: Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2018-2, in review, 2018.
Jiawei Liu et al.
Jiawei Liu et al.

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Short summary
A novel method based on present-future relationship in observed climate and models simulated future climate is applied to give more reliable projections of East Asian summer monsoon intensity and associated precipitation changes at 1.5° and 2 °C warming levels. Projected future changes suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity.
A novel method based on present-future relationship in observed climate and models simulated...
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