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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-99
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
11 Jan 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 °C & 2.0 °C
Yi Chen1, Zhao Zhang2, and Fulu Tao1 1Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Hazards, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Abstract. A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ℃ above pre-industrial levels has been established in Paris Agreement, which calls for understanding of climate risk under 1.5 ℃ & 2.0 ℃ warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e., maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106–2115 at warming scenarios of 1.5 ℃ & 2.0 ℃ using the method of ensemble simulation with well-validated MCWLA family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters, and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that the decrease of crop growth duration and the increase of extreme events impacts in the future would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the cultivation areas. By contrast, with the moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resource could be ameliorated which enhance canopy photosynthesis, and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly deteriorate maize growth environment but result in much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, the wheat and rice yields could increase by 3.9 % and 4.1 %, respectively, and maize yield could increase by 0.2 %, at a warming scenario of 1.5 ℃. At the warming scenario of 2.0 ℃, wheat and rice yield would increase by 8.6 % and 9.4 %, respectively, but maize yield could decrease by 1.7 %. In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for the crop development and food security in China. Moreover, although variability of crop yield would increase with the change of climate scenario from 1.5 ℃ warming to 2.0 ℃ warming, the probability of crop yield decrease would decrease. Our findings highlight that the 2.0 ℃ warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China, but the expected increase in extreme events impacts should be paid more attention to.

Citation: Chen, Y., Zhang, Z., and Tao, F.: Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 °C & 2.0 °C, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-99, in review, 2018.
Yi Chen et al.
Yi Chen et al.
Yi Chen et al.

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Short summary
This study evaluated the effects of warming scenarios (1.5℃ & 2.0℃) on production of maize, wheat and rice in China using MCWLA models and four GCMs. Results showed that the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for food security in China. 2.0℃ warming would lead to larger variability of crop yield but less probability of crop yield decrease than 1.5℃ warming. Adaptations to the expected increase in extreme events impacts should be paid more attention to.
This study evaluated the effects of warming scenarios (1.5℃ & 2.0℃) on production of maize,...
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