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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-95
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
22 Nov 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Climate change imposed limitations on potential food production
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, and Stefan Hagemann Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Land in the Earth System, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
Abstract. An adapted Earth system model is used to investigate the limitations that future climate and water availability impose on the potential expansion and productivity of croplands. The model maximises the cropland area under prevailing climate conditions and accounts for an optimized, sustainable irrigation practice, thus allowing to consider the two-way feedback between climate and agriculture. We show that the total cropland area could be extended substantially throughout the 21st century, especially in South America and sub-Saharan Africa, where the rising water demand resulting from increasing temperatures can largely be met by increasing precipitation and irrigation rates. When accounting for the CO2 fertilization effect, only few agricultural areas have to be abandoned, while increasing temperatures allow to expand croplands even into high northern latitudes. Without the CO2 fertilization effect there is no increase in the overall cropland fraction during the second half of the century but areal losses in increasingly water-stressed regions can be compensated by an expansion in regions, previously too cold. However, global yields are more sensitive and, without the benefits of CO2 fertilization, they may decrease when green house gas concentrations exceed the RCP4.5 scenario. For certain regions the situation is even more concerning and guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult, even under the most optimistic assumptions.

Citation: de Vrese, P., Stacke, T., and Hagemann, S.: Climate change imposed limitations on potential food production, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-95, in review, 2017.
Philipp de Vrese et al.
Philipp de Vrese et al.
Philipp de Vrese et al.

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Short summary
The potential food supply depends strongly on climatic conditions, while agricultural activity has substantial impacts on climate. Using an earth system model, we investigate the climate–agriculture interactions resulting from a maximization of the global cropland area during the 21st century. We find that the potential food supply can be increased substantially, but guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult.
The potential food supply depends strongly on climatic conditions, while agricultural activity...
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