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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-70
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 04 Sep 2017

Research article | 04 Sep 2017

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This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).

Development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system over Europe: Predictive skill, added value of regionalization and ensemble size dependency

Mark Reyers1, Hendrik Feldmann2, Sebastian Mieruch2,3, Joaquim G. Pinto2, Marianne Uhlig2,4, Bodo Ahrens5, Barbara Früh6, Modali Kameshvar7, Natalie Laube2, Julia Mömken1,2, Wolfgang Müller7, Gerd Schädler2, and Christoph Kottmeier2 Mark Reyers et al.
  • 1Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
  • 2Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
  • 3Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Sciences, Bremerhaven, Germany
  • 4School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
  • 5Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe-University Frankfurt a.M., Frankfurt a.M., Germany
  • 6Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany
  • 7Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Abstract. The current state of development and prospects of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe are analysed. The Miklip regional system consists of two 10-member hindcast ensembles computed with the global coupled model MPI-ESM-LR downscaled for the European region with COSMO-CLM to a horizontal resolution of 0.22° (~25km). Prediction skills are computed for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed using E-OBS and an ERA-Interim driven COSMO-CLM simulation as verification datasets. Focus is given to the eight European PRUDENCE regions and to lead 20 years 1–5 after initialization. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for all three variables is provided. For example, the initialized hindcasts outperform the uninitialized historical runs for some key regions in Europe and for some variables both in terms of accuracy and reliability. However, forecast skill is not detected in all cases, but it depends on the variable, the region, and the hindcast generation. A comparison of the downscaled hindcasts with the global MPI-ESM-LR runs reveals that the MiKlip prediction system may distinctly benefit from regionalization, in particular for 25 parts of Southern Europe and for Scandinavia. The forecast accuracy and the reliability of the MiKlip ensemble is systematically enhanced when the ensemble size is stepwise increased, and a number of 10 members is found to be suitable for decadal predictions. This result is valid for all variables and European regions in both the global and regional MiKlip ensemble. The predictive skill improves distinctly, particularly for temperature, when retaining the long-term trend in the time series. The present results are encouraging towards the development of a regional decadal prediction system.

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