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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-55
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
06 Jun 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests
Yannick Le Page1, Douglas Morton2, Hartin Corinne3, Bond-Lamberty Ben3, José Miguel Cardoso Pereira1, George Hurtt4, and Ghassem Asrar3 1Centro de Estudos Florestais, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
2NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
3Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
4Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Citation: Le Page, Y., Morton, D., Corinne, H., Ben, B.-L., Cardoso Pereira, J. M., Hurtt, G., and Asrar, G.: Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-55, in review, 2017.
Yannick Le Page et al.
Yannick Le Page et al.
Yannick Le Page et al.

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Short summary
Fires damage large areas of eastern Amazon forests when ignitions from human activity coincide with droughts, while central and western regions – more humid – are less affected. Here, we use a fire model to estimate that fire activity could increase by an order of magnitude without climate mitigation. Our results show that avoiding further agricultural expansion can limit fire ignitions, but that tackling climate change is essential to insulate the interior Amazon through the 21st century.
Fires damage large areas of eastern Amazon forests when ignitions from human activity coincide...
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