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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-54
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
06 Jun 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Influence of atmospheric internal variability on the long-term Siberian water cycle during the past two centuries
Kazuhiro Oshima1, Koto Ogata2,3, Hotaek Park1, and Yoshihiro Tachibana2 1Institute of Arctic Climate and Environment Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan
2Weather and Climate Dynamics Division, Mie University, Tsu, Japan
3Aerological Observatory, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
Abstract. River discharges from Siberia are a large source of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean, although the cause of the long-term variation in discharge is still unclear. The observed river discharges of the Lena in the east and the Ob in the west indicated different relationships in each of the epochs during the past seven decades. The correlations between the two river discharges were negative during the 1980s to mid-1990s, positive during the mid-1950s to 1960s, and became weak after the mid-1990s. Long-term records of tree-ring-reconstructed discharges during the past two centuries have also shown differences in the correlations in each epoch. However, it is noteworthy that the correlations obtained from the reconstructions tend to be negative. Such negative correlations have also been obtained from precipitations over the Lena and Ob in observation, and in simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and multi-coupled models conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. The AGCM control simulation further demonstrated that an east–west seesaw pattern of summertime atmospheric large-scale circulation frequently emerges over Siberia as an atmospheric internal variability, resulting in the negative correlation between the Lena and Ob. Consequently, the summertime atmospheric internal variability of east–west seesaw pattern over Siberia is a key factor influencing the long-term variation in precipitation and river discharge, i.e., the water cycle in this region.

Citation: Oshima, K., Ogata, K., Park, H., and Tachibana, Y.: Influence of atmospheric internal variability on the long-term Siberian water cycle during the past two centuries, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-54, in review, 2017.
Kazuhiro Oshima et al.
Kazuhiro Oshima et al.
Kazuhiro Oshima et al.

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Short summary
Long-term variations in the Siberian river discharges of the Lena in the east and the Ob in the west were investigated based on observations, tree-ring reconstructions and simulations with atmospheric and climate models. In conclusion, an east–west seesaw pattern of summertime large-scale atmospheric circulation frequently emerges over Siberia as an atmospheric internal variability, resulting in the negative correlation between the Lena and Ob River discharges.
Long-term variations in the Siberian river discharges of the Lena in the east and the Ob in the...
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