Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 3.635 IF 3.635
  • IF 5-year<br/> value: 3.869 IF 5-year
    3.869
  • CiteScore<br/> value: 4.15 CiteScore
    4.15
  • SNIP value: 0.995 SNIP 0.995
  • SJR value: 2.742 SJR 2.742
  • IPP value: 3.679 IPP 3.679
  • h5-index value: 21 h5-index 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-51
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
31 May 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5-Models
Bo Huang, Ulrich Cubasch, and Christopher Kadow Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Abstract. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important part of the global climate system and plays a vital role in the Asian climate. Its sub-seasonal-to-seasonal predictability is a long-standing issue within the monsoon scientist community. In this study, we analyse the seasonal (with six months lead time) prediction skill of the EASM rainfall and its associated general circulation in non-initialised and initialised simulations for the years 1979–2005 performed by six prediction systems (i.e., the BCC-CSM1-1, the CanCM4, the GFDL-CM2p1, the HadCM3, the MIROC5 and the MPI-ESM-LR) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP 5). We find that the simulation of the zonal wind is significantly improved in initialised simulations compared to non-initialized simulations. Based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM, we selected an EASM index based upon the zonal wind for further analysis. The assessment show that the GFDL-CM2p1 and the MIROC5 add prediction skill in simulating the EASM index with initialisation, the BCC-CSM1-1, the CanCM4, and the MPI-ESM-LR change the skill insignificantly, and the HadCM3 indicates a decreased skill score. The different response to the initialisation can be traced back to the ability of the models to capture the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)-EASM coupled mode, particularly the Southern Oscillation-EASM coupled mode. In summary, we find that the GFDL-CM2p1 and the MIROC5 are capable to predict the EASM on a seasonal time-scale after initialisation.

Citation: Huang, B., Cubasch, U., and Kadow, C.: Seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5-Models, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-51, in review, 2017.
Bo Huang et al.
Bo Huang et al.
Bo Huang et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 506 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
418 76 12 506 2 11

Views and downloads (calculated since 31 May 2017)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 31 May 2017)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 506 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 505 with geography defined and 1 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 18 Nov 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
We found that CMIP5-models show significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with initialization than that without initialization. Based on the knowledge that zonal wind indices can be used as potential predictors for the EASM. Given initial condition, two models improve the seasonal prediction skill of the EASM, while one model decreases it. Models have different response to the initialization due to their ability to depict the EASM-ESNO coupled mode.
We found that CMIP5-models show significant improvement in predicting zonal winds with...
Share