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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-107
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
27 Nov 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts
Camille Li1,2, Clio Michel1,2, Lise Seland Graff3, Ingo Bethke4,2, Giuseppe Zappa5, Thomas J. Bracegirdle6, Erich Fischer7, Ben Harvey5, Trond Iversen3, Martin P. King4,2, Harinarayan Krishnan8, Ludwig Lierhammer9, Daniel Mitchell10, John Scinocca11, Hideo Shiogama12, Dáithí A. Stone8,13, and Justin J. Wettstein14,1,2 1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
2Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
3Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
4Uni Climate, Uni Research, Bergen, Norway
5Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
6British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK
7Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
8Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
9German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg, Germany
10School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
11Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, Canada
12National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
13Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford, UK
14College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, USA
Abstract. This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterizing and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to the 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, western Europe and the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2.0 °C world, though the ensemble spread still allows for both wetting and drying responses.

Citation: Li, C., Michel, C., Seland Graff, L., Bethke, I., Zappa, G., Bracegirdle, T. J., Fischer, E., Harvey, B., Iversen, T., King, M. P., Krishnan, H., Lierhammer, L., Mitchell, D., Scinocca, J., Shiogama, H., Stone, D. A., and Wettstein, J. J.: Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-107, in review, 2017.
Camille Li et al.
Camille Li et al.

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