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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-101
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
06 Nov 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols
Michael F. Wehner1, Kevin A. Reed2, Burlen Loring1, Dáithí Stone1, and Harinarayan Krishnan1 1Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California 94720, USA
2State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York 11794, USA
Abstract. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world where anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios by direct numerical simulation using a high resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones becomes more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Citation: Wehner, M. F., Reed, K. A., Loring, B., Stone, D., and Krishnan, H.: Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-101, in review, 2017.
Michael F. Wehner et al.
Michael F. Wehner et al.
Michael F. Wehner et al.

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Short summary
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world where anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios using a high resolution global climate model. We find that the intense tropical cyclones becomes more frequent and intense, but a reduction in weaker storms.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change invited the scientific community to...
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