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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
02 Jan 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of this manuscript was accepted for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Return Levels of Temperature Extremes in Southern Pakistan
Maida Zahid1, Richard Blender1, Valerio Lucarini1,2, and Maria Caterina Bramati3 1Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
2Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Reading, Reading, UK
3Department of Statistical Science, Cornell University, New York, United States
Abstract. Southern Pakistan (Sindh) is one of the hottest regions in the world and is highly vulnerable to temperature extremes. In order to improve rural and urban planning, information about the recurrence of temperature extremes is required. In this work, return levels of the daily maximum temperature Tmax are estimated, as well as the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature TWmax extremes. The method used is the Peak Over Threshold (POT) and it represents a novelty among the approaches previously used for similar studies in this region. Two main datasets are analyzed: temperatures observed in nine meteorological stations in southern Pakistan from 1980 to 2013, and the ERA Interim data for the nearest corresponding locations. The analysis provides the 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100-year Return Levels (RLs) of temperature extremes. The 90 % quantile is found to be a suitable threshold for all stations. We find that the RLs of the observed Tmax are above 50 °C in northern stations, and above 45 °C in the southern stations. The RLs of the observed TWmax exceed 35 °C in the region, which is considered as a limit of survivability. The RLs estimated from the ERA Interim data are lower by 3 °C to 5 °C than the RLs assessed for the nine meteorological stations. A simple bias correction applied to ERA Interim data improves the RLs remarkably, yet discrepancies are still present. The results have potential implications for the risk assessment of extreme temperatures in Sindh.

Citation: Zahid, M., Blender, R., Lucarini, V., and Bramati, M. C.: Return Levels of Temperature Extremes in Southern Pakistan, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.,, in review, 2017.
Maida Zahid et al.
Maida Zahid et al.


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Short summary
Southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) is exposed to frequent and intense temperature extremes recently, and is highly vulnerable to their impacts due to lack of information on recurrence of extremes. In this paper for the first time we estimated the return levels of daily maximum temperatures and daily maximum wet-bulb temperatures over the different return periods in Sindh, which would help the local administrations to prioritize the regions in terms of adaptations.
Southern part of Pakistan (Sindh province) is exposed to frequent and intense temperature...