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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2043-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2043-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 20 Oct 2015

Research article | 20 Oct 2015

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD). The revised manuscript was not accepted.

A simple model of the anthropogenically forced CO2 cycle

W. Weber1,*,†, H.-J. Lüdecke2,*, and C. O. Weiss3,* W. Weber et al.
  • 1Technical University Dortmund, Institute of Physics, Dortmund, Germany
  • 2HTW, University of Applied Sciences, Saarbrücken, Germany
  • 3Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig, Germany
  • *retired
  • deceased 2014

Abstract. From basic physical assumptions we derive a simple linear model of the global CO2 cycle without free parameters. It yields excellent agreement with the observations reported by the carbon dioxide information analysis center (CDIAC) as time series of atmospheric CO2 growth, of sinks in the ocean and of absorption by the biosphere. The agreement extends from the year 1850 until present (2013). Based on anthropogenic CO2 emission scenarios until 2150, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations are calculated. As the model shows, and depending on the emission scenario, the airborne fraction of CO2 begins to decrease in the year ~ 2050 and becomes negative at the latest in ~ 2130. At the same time the concentration of the atmospheric CO2 will reach a maximum between ~ 500 and ~ 900 ppm. As a consequence, increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions will make the ocean and the biosphere the main reservoirs of anthropogenic CO2 in the long run. Latest in about 150 years, anthropogenic CO2 emission will no longer increase the CO2 content of the atmosphere.

W. Weber et al.
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Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
W. Weber et al.
W. Weber et al.
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