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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-865-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-865-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 20 Apr 2015

Research article | 20 Apr 2015

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD). A final paper in ESD is not foreseen.

Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 2: Deforestation control and investment in carbon capture and storage technologies

K. B. Z. Ogutu3,2,1, F. D'Andrea2, M. Ghil5,4,2, C. Nyandwi3, M. M. Manene6, and J. N. Muthama7 K. B. Z. Ogutu et al.
  • 1Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, School of Science, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, Nyeri, Kenya
  • 2Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
  • 3Department of Applied and Industrial Mathematics, School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
  • 4Environmental Research & Teaching Institute, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
  • 5Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics & Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
  • 6Department of Statistics and Operations Research, School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
  • 7Department of Meteorology, School of Physical Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract. This study uses the global climate–economy–biosphere (CoCEB) model developed in Part 1 to investigate economic aspects of deforestation control and carbon sequestration in forests, as well as the efficiency of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies as policy measures for climate change mitigation. We assume – as in Part 1 – that replacement of one technology with another occurs in terms of a logistic law, so that the same law also governs the dynamics of reduction in carbon dioxide emission using CCS technologies. In order to take into account the effect of deforestation control, a slightly more complex description of the carbon cycle than in Part 1 is needed. Consequently, we add a biomass equation into the CoCEB model and analyze the ensuing feedbacks and their effects on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Integrating biomass into the CoCEB and applying deforestation control as well as CCS technologies has the following results: (i) low investment in CCS contributes to reducing industrial carbon emissions and to increasing GDP, but further investment leads to a smaller reduction in emissions, as well as in the incremental GDP growth; and (ii) enhanced deforestation control contributes to a reduction in both deforestation emissions and in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, thus reducing the impacts of climate change and contributing to a slight appreciation of GDP growth. This effect is however very small compared to that of low-carbon technologies or CCS. We also find that the result in (i) is very sensitive to the formulation of CCS costs, while to the contrary, the results for deforestation control are less sensitive.

K. B. Z. Ogutu et al.
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K. B. Z. Ogutu et al.
K. B. Z. Ogutu et al.
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Short summary
We extend the global climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model by adding a biomass equation and the related exchanges of CO2 and investigate the relationship between the effects of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) and deforestation control, and the economy growth rate. This endeavor reduces the impacts of climate change and positively affects economy growth. Also, the results for CCS remained sensitive to the formulation of CCS costs while those for deforestation control were less sensitive.
We extend the global climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model by adding a biomass equation and...
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