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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
30 Sep 2014
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript for further review has not been submitted.
The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts
A. Jarvis and C. N. Hewitt Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, A14YQ, UK
Abstract. We analyse the global primary energy use and total CO2 emissions time series since 1850 and show that their relative growth rates appear to exhibit periodicity with a fundamental timescale of ~60 years and with significant harmonic behaviour. Quantifying the inertia inherent in these dynamics allows forecasting of future "business as usual" energy needs and their associated CO2 emissions. Our best estimates for 2020 are 800 EJ yr−1 for global energy use and 14 Gt yr−1 for global CO2 emissions, with both being above almost all other published forecasts. This suggests the energy and total CO2 emissions landscape in 2020 may be significantly more challenging than currently envisaged.

Citation: Jarvis, A. and Hewitt, C. N.: The "Business-As-Usual" growth of global primary energy use and carbon dioxide emissions – historical trends and near-term forecasts, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-1143-2014, in review, 2014.
A. Jarvis and C. N. Hewitt
Interactive discussionStatus: closed (peer review stopped)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
RC C532: 'Comments: Needs some deeper analysis', Glen Peters, 29 Oct 2014 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C557: 'Response to Glen Peters', Andrew Jarvis, 11 Nov 2014 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
RC C536: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 Nov 2014 Printer-friendly Version 
AC C558: 'Response to Reviewer 2', Andrew Jarvis, 11 Nov 2014 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
EC C623: 'Editor's comment', Julia C. Hargreaves, 11 Dec 2014 Printer-friendly Version 
A. Jarvis and C. N. Hewitt
A. Jarvis and C. N. Hewitt

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