Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 3.769 IF 3.769
  • IF 5-year value: 4.522 IF 5-year
    4.522
  • CiteScore value: 4.14 CiteScore
    4.14
  • SNIP value: 1.170 SNIP 1.170
  • SJR value: 2.253 SJR 2.253
  • IPP value: 3.86 IPP 3.86
  • h5-index value: 26 h5-index 26
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 22 Scimago H
    index 22
Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-991-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-5-991-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 29 Aug 2014

Research article | 29 Aug 2014

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD). The revised manuscript was not accepted.

Differences in carbon cycle and temperature projections from emission- and concentration-driven earth system model simulations

P. Shao1, X. Zeng1, and X. Zeng2 P. Shao et al.
  • 1International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 2Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

Abstract. The influence of prognostic and prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) on the carbon uptake and temperature is investigated using all eight Earth System Models (ESMs) with relevant output variables from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the projected [CO2] differences in 2100 vary from −19.7 to +207.3 ppm in emission-driven ESMs. Incorporation of the interactive concentrations also increases the range of global warming, computed as the 20 year average difference between 2081–2100 and 1850–1869/1861–1880, by 49% from 2.36 K (i.e. ranging from 3.11 to 5.47 K) in the concentration-driven simulations to 3.51 K in the emission-driven simulations. The observed seasonal amplitude of global [CO2] from 1980–2011 is about 1.2–5.3 times as large as those from the eight emission-driven ESMs, while the [CO2] seasonality is simply neglected in concentration-driven ESMs, suggesting the urgent need of ESM improvements in this area. The temperature-concentration feedback parameter α is more sensitive to [CO2] (e.g. during 1980–2005 versus 2075–2100) than how [CO2] is handled (i.e. prognostic versus prescribed). This sensitivity can be substantially reduced by using a more appropriate parameter α' computed from the linear regression of temperature change versus that of the logarithm of [CO2]. However, the inter-model relative variations of both α and α' remain large, suggesting the need of more detailed studies to understand and hopefully reduce these discrepancies.

P. Shao et al.
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
P. Shao et al.
P. Shao et al.
Viewed  
Total article views: 763 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
521 189 53 763 24 47
  • HTML: 521
  • PDF: 189
  • XML: 53
  • Total: 763
  • BibTeX: 24
  • EndNote: 47
Views and downloads (calculated since 29 Aug 2014)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 29 Aug 2014)
Cited  
Saved  
Discussed  
No discussed metrics found.
Latest update: 21 Mar 2019
Publications Copernicus
Download
Citation