Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 3.635 IF 3.635
  • IF 5-year<br/> value: 3.869 IF 5-year
    3.869
  • CiteScore<br/> value: 4.15 CiteScore
    4.15
  • SNIP value: 0.995 SNIP 0.995
  • SJR value: 2.742 SJR 2.742
  • IPP value: 3.679 IPP 3.679
  • h5-index value: 21 h5-index 21
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-433-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
25 Jun 2012
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper for further review has not been submitted.
Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent
E. Dumont Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Abstract. Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

Citation: Dumont, E.: Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 433-452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-433-2012, 2012.
E. Dumont
E. Dumont

Viewed

Total article views: 2,455 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
910 1,454 91 2,455 39 33

Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 16 Aug 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Share