Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water on Antarctica
Summary: Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. We investigate the option to delay sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto Antarctica. Due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than expected from pure advection. A millennium-scale storage of >80% of the additional ice requires a distance of >700km from the coast line. The pumping energy required to elevate ocean water to mitigate a sea level rise of 3mm/yr exceeds 7% of current global primary energy supply.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1979-1997, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1979-2015, 2015
Observationally based analysis of land–atmosphere coupling
Summary: A generalized linear method specifically designed to assess the reciprocal forcing between connected fields is applied to the latest available observational datasets of global precipitation, evapotranspiration, vegetation and soil moisture. The analysis evidenced a robust coupling between soil moisture and precipitation and a strong link with volcanic eruptions and ENSO cycles, mediated by the effects of evapotranspiration and vegetation.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1939-1977, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1939-2015, 2015
The role of spatial scale and background climate in the latitudinal temperature response to deforestation
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1897-1937, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1897-2015, 2015
Comparing peasants' perceptions of precipitation change with precipitation records in the tropical Callejón de Huaylas, Peru
Summary: Working on the interface of water availability and water demand in a small Andean catchment, peasants’ reports on detrimental precipitation changes during the last decades have attracted our scientific interest. We could not confirm any precipitation trends in this period with nearby precipitation records, but we found precipitation patterns that very likely pose challenges for rain-fed farming - in addition to potential other stresses by environmental and sociopolitical changes.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1863-1896, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1863-2015, 2015
Scaling regimes and linear and nonlinear responses of last millennium climate models to volcanic and solar forcings
Summary: We compare the statistical properties of solar , volcanic and combined forcings over the range of time scales from one to 1000 years to see over which scales they combine additively. The main findings are: a) that the variability of the ZC and GCM models are too weak at centennial and longer scales, b) for longer than ≈50 years, the forcings combine subadditively, c) the models display another nonlinear effect at shorter scales: intermittency.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1815-1862, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1815-2015, 2015
Global warming projections derived from an observation-based minimal model
Summary: A conceptual model for the global temperature response to CO2 emissions is presented. Based on observation data, projections of future warming are computed for instructive emission scenarios. Delays in initiation of global emission reduction is found to be the most important factor driving global warming over the next two centuries. The model is intended as a tool for communicating the issue to non-climate scientists, students, policy-makers, and the general public.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1789-1813, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1789-2015, 2015
Life time of soil moisture perturbations in a coupled land-atmosphere simulation
Summary: This study evaluates the life-time of soil moisture perturbations using an atmosphere/land GCM. We find memory of up to 9 months for root zone soil moisture. Interactions with other surface states result in significant but short-lived anomalies in surface temperature and more stable anomalies in leaf carbon content. As these anomalies can recur repeatedly e.g. due to interactions with a deep soil moisture reservoir, we conclude that soil moisture initialization may impact climate predictions.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1743-1788, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1743-2015, 2015
Horses for courses: analytical tools to explore planetary boundaries
Summary: There is a need for further integrated research on developing a set of sustainable development objectives, based on the proposed framework of planetary boundaries indicators. This paper organises the research questions in four key categories. It subsequently discusses how different categories of scientific disciplines and in particular models can contribute to the necessary analysis.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1711-1741, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1711-2015, 2015
Geoengineering as a design problem
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1635-1710, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1635-2015, 2015
The eigenvalue problem for ice-shelf vibrations: comparison of a full 3-D model with the thin plate approximation
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1605-1633, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1605-2015, 2015
Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: attribution of the causes through traceability analysis
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1579-1604, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1579-2015, 2015
The tropical Atlantic surface wind divergence belt and its effect on clouds
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1557-1577, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1557-2015, 2015
How different sources of climate databases influence assessment of growth response in dendroclimatic analyses – case study from Lapland
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1535-1555, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1535-2015, 2015
Climate change increases riverine carbon outgassing while export to the ocean remains uncertain
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1445-1497, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1445-2015, 2015
Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada
Summary: According to groundwater flow and mass transport simulations, nitrate concentration for year 2050 would increase mainly due to the attainment of equilibrium conditions of the aquifer system related to actual nitrogen loadings, and to the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices. Climate change alone would contribute only slightly to that increase. This underlines the need for better agricultural practices that integrate the characteristics of the aquifer system.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1339-1394, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1339-2015, 2015
"Changes" of the thermal continentality in Central Europe between the years 1951 and 2013: case study – Slovak Republic
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1261-1275, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1261-2015, 2015
Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa
Summary: A prototype model LandPro was developed to study climate change impact on land use in West Africa. LandPro considers climate and socioeconomic factors in projecting anthropogenic future land use change (LULCC). The model projections reflect that relative impact of climate change on LULCC in West Africa is region dependent. Results from scenario analysis suggest that science-informed decision-making by the farmers in agricultural land use can potentially reduce crop area expansion in the region.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1129-1162, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1129-2015, 2015
Implications of land use change in tropical Northern Africa under global warming
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1101-1128, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1101-2015, 2015
Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 2: Deforestation control and investment in carbon capture and storage technologies
Summary: We extend the global climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model by adding a biomass equation and the related exchanges of CO2 and investigate the relationship between the effects of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) and deforestation control, and the economy growth rate. This endeavor reduces the impacts of climate change and positively affects economy growth. Also, the results for CCS remained sensitive to the formulation of CCS costs while those for deforestation control were less sensitive.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 865-906, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-865-2015, 2015