Divergent predictions of carbon storage between two global land models: attribution of the causes through traceability analysis
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1579-1604, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1579-2015, 2015
The tropical Atlantic surface wind divergence belt and its effect on clouds
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1557-1577, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1557-2015, 2015
How different sources of climate databases influence assessment of growth response in dendroclimatic analyses – case study from Lapland
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1535-1555, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1535-2015, 2015
Climatological variations of total alkalinity and total inorganic carbon in the Mediterranean Sea surface waters
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1499-1533, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1499-2015, 2015
Climate change increases riverine carbon outgassing while export to the ocean remains uncertain
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1445-1497, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1445-2015, 2015
An ice sheet model of reduced complexity for paleoclimate studies
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1395-1443, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1395-2015, 2015
Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada
Summary: According to groundwater flow and mass transport simulations, nitrate concentration for year 2050 would increase mainly due to the attainment of equilibrium conditions of the aquifer system related to actual nitrogen loadings, and to the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices. Climate change alone would contribute only slightly to that increase. This underlines the need for better agricultural practices that integrate the characteristics of the aquifer system.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1339-1394, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1339-2015, 2015
Attribution in the presence of a long-memory climate response
Summary: Human and natural forces drive climate change. If we have a model for the climate response to forcing we can identify distinct fingerprints for each force, and their footprint in the observed global temperature can be determined by statistical analysis. This process is called attribution. This work examines the effect delays (long-range memory) in the climate response has on the magnitude of the various footprints. The magnitude of the human footprint turns out to be only weakly affected.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1309-1338, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1309-2015, 2015
Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector
Summary: We introduce GENIEem-PLASIM-ENTSem (GPem), a climate-carbon cycle emulator, showing how model emulation can be used in integrated assessment modelling to resolve regional climate impacts and systematically capture uncertainty. In a case study, we couple GPem to FTT:Power-E3MG, a non-equilibrium economic model with technology diffusion. We find that when the electricity sector is decarbonised by 90%, further emissions reductions must be achieved in other sectors to avoid dangerous climate change.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1277-1308, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1277-2015, 2015
"Changes" of the thermal continentality in Central Europe between the years 1951 and 2013: case study – Slovak Republic
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1261-1275, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1261-2015, 2015
Multi-millennial-scale solar activity and its influences on continental tropical climate: empirical evidence of recurrent cosmic and terrestrial patterns
Summary: Recurrent models of solar activity signal are applied and tested. Results suggest the persistence of ~9500-yr scale solar oscillations, over at least the last glacial-interglacial cycle. These recurrent oscillations have also provided: a multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward Grand (Super) Minimum conditions for the period, 2050-2250 AD (3750-4450 AD), and evidences of their linear influence on continental tropical climate.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1237-1260, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1237-2015, 2015
The nexus of oil, conflict, and climate change vulnerability of pastoral communities in Northwest Kenya
Summary: Oil exploration has ambivalent, but mostly aggravating effects on the local communities’ vulnerability to climate change. There is a risk of escalating company-community conflicts. The conflicts are mostly driven by unmet community expectations for employment, water and development. The government of Kenya and the oil company need to ensure that local communities in Turkana benefit from the oil exploration and exploitation in a fair and transparent manner.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1163-1200, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1163-2015, 2015
Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa
Summary: A prototype model LandPro was developed to study climate change impact on land use in West Africa. LandPro considers climate and socioeconomic factors in projecting anthropogenic future land use change (LULCC). The model projections reflect that relative impact of climate change on LULCC in West Africa is region dependent. Results from scenario analysis suggest that science-informed decision-making by the farmers in agricultural land use can potentially reduce crop area expansion in the region.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1129-1162, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1129-2015, 2015
Implications of land use change in tropical Northern Africa under global warming
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1101-1128, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1101-2015, 2015
Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 2: Deforestation control and investment in carbon capture and storage technologies
Summary: We extend the global climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model by adding a biomass equation and the related exchanges of CO2 and investigate the relationship between the effects of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) and deforestation control, and the economy growth rate. This endeavor reduces the impacts of climate change and positively affects economy growth. Also, the results for CCS remained sensitive to the formulation of CCS costs while those for deforestation control were less sensitive.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 865-906, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-865-2015, 2015
Topology of sustainable management in dynamical Earth system models with desirable states
Summary: The debate about a safe and just operating space for humanity and the possible pathways towards and within it requires an analysis of the inherent dynamics of the Earth System and of the options for influencing its evolution. We present and illustrate with examples a conceptual framework for performing such an analysis not in a quantitative, optimizing mode, but in a qualitative way that emphasizes the main decision dilemmata that one may face in the sustainable management of the Earth System.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 435-488, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-435-2015, 2015