"Changes" of the thermal continentality in Central Europe between the years 1951 and 2013: case study – Slovak Republic
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1261-1275, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1261-2015, 2015
Multi-millennial-scale solar activity and its influences on continental tropical climate: empirical evidence of recurrent cosmic and terrestrial patterns
Summary: Recurrent models of solar activity signal are applied and tested. Results suggest the persistence of ~9500-yr scale solar oscillations, over at least the last glacial-interglacial cycle. These recurrent oscillations have also provided: a multi-millennial-scale experimental forecast, suggesting a solar decreasing trend toward Grand (Super) Minimum conditions for the period, 2050-2250 AD (3750-4450 AD), and evidences of their linear influence on continental tropical climate.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1237-1260, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1237-2015, 2015
Are there multiple scaling regimes in Holocene temperature records?
Summary: In this article it is discussed how temperature variability on centennial time scales and longer can be described in a simplistic way. By analysing the scaling in late Holocene temperature reconstructions and longer temperature records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores, we find that the choice of model depends heavily on the data material and time scale one chooses to emphasize. Ignoring data beyond the Holocene seems plausible when predicting temperature, but not for other purposes.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1201-1235, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1201-2015, 2015
The nexus of oil, conflict, and climate change vulnerability of pastoral communities in Northwest Kenya
Summary: Oil exploration has ambivalent, but mostly aggravating effects on the local communities’ vulnerability to climate change. There is a risk of escalating company-community conflicts. The conflicts are mostly driven by unmet community expectations for employment, water and development. The government of Kenya and the oil company need to ensure that local communities in Turkana benefit from the oil exploration and exploitation in a fair and transparent manner.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1163-1200, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1163-2015, 2015
Potential impact of climate and socioeconomic changes on future agricultural land use in West Africa
Summary: A prototype model LandPro was developed to study climate change impact on land use in West Africa. LandPro considers climate and socioeconomic factors in projecting anthropogenic future land use change (LULCC). The model projections reflect that relative impact of climate change on LULCC in West Africa is region dependent. Results from scenario analysis suggest that science-informed decision-making by the farmers in agricultural land use can potentially reduce crop area expansion in the region.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1129-1162, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1129-2015, 2015
Implications of land use change in tropical Northern Africa under global warming
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1101-1128, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1101-2015, 2015
Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1047-1100, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1047-2015, 2015
Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 2: Deforestation control and investment in carbon capture and storage technologies
Summary: We extend the global climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model by adding a biomass equation and the related exchanges of CO2 and investigate the relationship between the effects of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) and deforestation control, and the economy growth rate. This endeavor reduces the impacts of climate change and positively affects economy growth. Also, the results for CCS remained sensitive to the formulation of CCS costs while those for deforestation control were less sensitive.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 865-906, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-865-2015, 2015
Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 1: Abatement share and investment in low-carbon technologies
Summary: The Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model takes an integrated assessment approach to simulating global change. While many integrated assessment models treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, we consider abatement activities also as an investment in overall energy efficiency of the economy and decrease of overall carbon intensity of the energy system. The paper shows that these efforts help to abate climate change and lead to positive effects in economic growth.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 819-863, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-819-2015, 2015
Topology of sustainable management in dynamical Earth system models with desirable states
Summary: The debate about a safe and just operating space for humanity and the possible pathways towards and within it requires an analysis of the inherent dynamics of the Earth System and of the options for influencing its evolution. We present and illustrate with examples a conceptual framework for performing such an analysis not in a quantitative, optimizing mode, but in a qualitative way that emphasizes the main decision dilemmata that one may face in the sustainable management of the Earth System.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 435-488, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-435-2015, 2015