Socio-environmental cooperation and conflict? A discursive understanding and its application to the case of Israel/Palestine
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 1001-1031, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-1001-2015, 2015
Changing trends and abrupt features of extreme temperature in mainland China during 1960 to 2010
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 979-1000, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-979-2015, 2015
Understanding land surface response to changing South Asian monsoon in a warming climate
Summary: This study using a variable resolution global climate model having high-resolution zooming over the South Asian region indicates that the anthropogenic effects have influenced the recent weakening of the monsoon circulation and decline of precipitation. The simulated increase of surface temperature over the Indian region during the post-1950s is accompanied by a significant decrease of monsoon precipitation and soil moisture. This summer time soil drying is detectable under RCP4.5 scenario.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 943-977, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-943-2015, 2015
Climatology of Vb-cyclones, physical mechanisms and their impact on extreme precipitation over Central Europe
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 907-941, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-907-2015, 2015
Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 2: Deforestation control and investment in carbon capture and storage technologies
Summary: We extend the global climate-economy-biosphere (CoCEB) model by adding a biomass equation and the related exchanges of CO2 and investigate the relationship between the effects of using carbon capture and storage (CCS) and deforestation control, and the economy growth rate. This endeavor reduces the impacts of climate change and positively affects economy growth. Also, the results for CCS remained sensitive to the formulation of CCS costs while those for deforestation control were less sensitive.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 865-906, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-865-2015, 2015
Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 1: Abatement share and investment in low-carbon technologies
Summary: The Coupled Climate-Economy-Biosphere (CoCEB) model takes an integrated assessment approach to simulating global change. While many integrated assessment models treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, we consider abatement activities also as an investment in overall energy efficiency of the economy and decrease of overall carbon intensity of the energy system. The paper shows that these efforts help to abate climate change and lead to positive effects in economic growth.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 819-863, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-819-2015, 2015
Leaf Area Index in Earth System Models: evaluation and projections
Summary: This paper evaluates the model predictions of leaf area index in the current climate, compared against satellite observations. It also summarizes the predicted changes in leaf area index in the future, and identifies whether some of the uncertainty in future predictions can be decreased.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 761-818, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-761-2015, 2015
Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes
Summary: Emissions due to human activity impact on rainfall, but this impact depends on the properties of the gases, or particles, that are emitted. This paper uses improved understanding of relevant processes to produce a new measure, called the Global Precipitation-change Potential, which allows a direct comparison of the effect of different emissions on rainfall. Carbon dioxide, in the years following its emission, is shown to be less effective than methane emissions at causing rainfall change.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 719-760, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-719-2015, 2015
Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus basin
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 579-653, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-579-2015, 2015
Large differences in land use emission quantifications implied by definition discrepancies
Summary: Estimates for land use change CO2 emissions (eLUC) rely on different approaches, implying conceptual differences in what eLUC represents. We use an Earth System Model and quantify differences between commonly applied methods to be ~20% for historical eLUC but increasing under a future scenario. To reduce uncertainty, we suggest a framework to define eLUC components and recommend to assume constant environmental conditions for the quantification of eLUC in global carbon budget accounting.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 547-577, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-547-2015, 2015
The Scaling LInear Macroweather model (SLIM): using scaling to forecast global scale macroweather from months to decades
Summary: Numerical climate model forecast the weather well beyond the deterministic limit. In this “macroweather” regime, they are random number generators. Stochastic models can have more realistic noises and can be forced to converge to the real world climate. Existing stochastic models do not exploit the very long atmospheric and oceanic memories. Our new Scaling Linear Macroweather (SLIM) model exploits this to make forecasts more accurate than GCM’s and with skill up to decades.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 489-545, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-489-2015, 2015
Topology of sustainable management in dynamical Earth system models with desirable states
Summary: The debate about a safe and just operating space for humanity and the possible pathways towards and within it requires an analysis of the inherent dynamics of the Earth System and of the options for influencing its evolution. We present and illustrate with examples a conceptual framework for performing such an analysis not in a quantitative, optimizing mode, but in a qualitative way that emphasizes the main decision dilemmata that one may face in the sustainable management of the Earth System.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 435-488, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-435-2015, 2015
Resource acquisition, distribution and end-use efficiencies and the growth of industrial society
Summary: This paper uses observations of global and national energy use to attempt to show that the growth in energy use over the last 160 years can be related to the distribution constraints imposed by the networks that link environmentally-derived resources to points of end use. Having accounted for the distribution efficiency of this global-scale network, we speculate that the observed long-run return rate on energy of ~2.4 %/yr requires regulated deployment of acquisition and end use efficiencies.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 133-168, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-133-2015, 2015
Optimizing cropland cover for stable food production in Sub-Saharan Africa using simulated yield and Modern Portfolio Theory
Summary: Food security is defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In regions where food security is highly dependent on local production it is thus of importance to produce not only enough calories but also to minimize variation in yield. This trade-off is investigated here using simulated crop yield and by selecting relative distributions of crops. The results show a large potential to either increase food production or to decrease its variance by applying optimized crop selection.
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 1571-1606, doi:10.5194/esdd-5-1571-2014, 2014