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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-34
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
06 Apr 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Climate indices for Baltic States from principal component analysis
Liga Bethere, Juris Sennikovs, and Uldis Bethers Laboratory for Mathematical Modelling of Environmental and Technological Processes, University of Latvia, Riga, LV-1002, Latvia
Abstract. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to derive climate indices that describe the main spatial features of the climate in the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). Monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values derived from the ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate models (RCM) were used. Principal components were derived for years 1961–1990. The first three components describe 92 % of the variance of the initial data and were chosen as climate indices in further analysis. Spatial patterns of these indices and their correlation with the initial variables were analyzed and it was observed that higher values of each index corresponded to: (1) less distinct seasonality, (2) warmer and (3) wetter climate. The loadings from the chosen principal components were then further used to calculate values of the climate indices for years 2071–2100. Overall increase was found for all three indices with minimal changes in their spatial pattern.

Citation: Bethere, L., Sennikovs, J., and Bethers, U.: Climate indices for Baltic States from principal component analysis, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-34, in review, 2017.
Liga Bethere et al.
Liga Bethere et al.
Liga Bethere et al.

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Short summary
In this work we define 3 new climate indices based on monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values that describe main features of climate in Baltic States. Higher values of each index correspond to (1) less distinct seasonality, (2) warmer and (3) wetter climate. It was calculated that in future all 3 indices will increase. Not only such indices summarize and illustrate spatial features of Baltic States climate, but also can be used in further analysis of climate change impacts.
In this work we define 3 new climate indices based on monthly mean temperature and total...
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