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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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doi:10.5194/esd-2016-59
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
30 Nov 2016
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Non–linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a dynamic response to future warming
Jacob Schewe1 and Anders Levermann1,2,3 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
2Institute of Physics, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
3Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, USA
Abstract. Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 % to 300 % over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non–linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic moisture source region, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behaviour is consistent with a self–amplifying dynamic–thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region.

Citation: Schewe, J. and Levermann, A.: Non–linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a dynamic response to future warming, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2016-59, in review, 2016.
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann
Jacob Schewe and Anders Levermann

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Short summary
Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations show that threshold behaviour can follow from the internal dynamics of monsoons. So far, however, the possibility of abrupt changes has not been explored for modern monsoon systems. We analyze state-of-the-art climate model simulations and show that some models project abrupt changes in Sahel rainfall in response to a dynamic shift in the West African monsoon under 21st century climate change.
Monsoon systems have undergone abrupt changes in past climates, and theoretical considerations...
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