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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union

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doi:10.5194/esdd-6-2211-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
03 Nov 2015
Review status
A revision of this discussion paper was accepted for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD) and is expected to appear here in due course.
Two-dimensional prognostic experiments for fast-flowing ice streams from the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap: future modeled histories obtained for the reference surface mass balance
Y. V. Konovalov and O. V. Nagornov Mathematical Department, National Research Nuclear University "MEPhI", Kashirskoe shosse, 31, 115409 Moscow, Russian Federation
Abstract. The prognostic experiments for fast-flowing ice streams on the southern side of the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap in the Komsomolets Island, Severnaya Zemlya archipelago, are implemented in this study. These experiments are based on inversions of basal friction coefficients using a two-dimensional flow-line thermo-coupled model and the Tikhonov's regularization method. The modeled ice temperature distributions in the cross-sections were obtained using the ice surface temperature histories that were inverted previously from the borehole temperature profiles derived at the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap. Input data included InSAR ice surface velocities, ice surface elevations, and ice thicknesses obtained from airborne measurements and the surface mass balance, were adopted from the prior investigations for the implementation of both the forward and inverse problems. The prognostic experiments reveal that both ice mass and ice stream extents decline for the reference time-independent surface mass balance. Specifically, the grounding line retreats (a) along the B–B' flow line from ~ 40 to ~ 30 km (the distance from the summit), (b) along the C–C' flow line from ~ 43 to ~ 37 km, and (c) along the D–D' flow line from ~ 41 to ~ 32 km considering a time period of 500 years and assuming time-independent surface mass balance. Ice flow velocities in the ice streams decrease with time and this trend results in the overall decline of the outgoing ice flux. Generally, the modeled histories are in agreement with observations of sea ice extent and thickness indicating a continual ice decline in the Arctic.

Citation: Konovalov, Y. V. and Nagornov, O. V.: Two-dimensional prognostic experiments for fast-flowing ice streams from the Academy of Sciences Ice Cap: future modeled histories obtained for the reference surface mass balance, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 2211-2242, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-2211-2015, 2015.
Y. V. Konovalov and O. V. Nagornov
Interactive discussionStatus: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version      Supplement - Supplement
 
RC C933: 'Review comments - please see Supplement for specific comments', Thorben Dunse, 07 Dec 2015 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
 
RC C1051: 'Referee Comment', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 Jan 2016 Printer-friendly Version 
 
AC C1304: 'Author’s final comments', Yuri Konovalov, 07 Apr 2016 Printer-friendly Version Supplement 
Y. V. Konovalov and O. V. Nagornov
Y. V. Konovalov and O. V. Nagornov

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