Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario
Z. Sun1,2, S. F. Jia1, A. F. Lv1, K. J. Yang2,3, J. Svensson4, and Y. C. Gao11Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 2University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 3Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 4Department of Political Science, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4, Canada
Received: 10 Sep 2015 – Accepted for review: 19 Oct 2015 – Discussion started: 29 Oct 2015
Abstract. This paper advances understanding of the impacts of climate change on crops in China by moving from ex-post analysis to forecasting, and by demonstrating how the effects of climate change will affect the growth period and the planting boundaries of winter wheat. Using a multiple regression model based on agricultural meteorological observations and the IPCC AR5 GCMs simulations, we find that the sowing date of winter wheat in the base period, 2040s and 2070s, shows a gradually delayed trend from north to south and the growth period of winter wheat in China will be shortened under climate change. The simulation results also show that (i) the north planting boundaries of winter wheat in China will likely move northward and expand westward in the future, while the south planting boundary will rise and spread in south Hainan and Taiwan; and (ii) the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will have the largest increases in planting areas in 2040s and 2070s. Our simulation implies that Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are more sensitive to climate change than other regions in China and priority should be given to design adaptation strategies for winter wheat planting for these provinces.
Sun, Z., Jia, S. F., Lv, A. F., Yang, K. J., Svensson, J., and Gao, Y. C.: Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 2181-2210, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-2181-2015, 2015.