Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 1: Abatement share and investment in low-carbon technologies
K. B. Z. Ogutu1,2,3, F. D'Andrea2, M. Ghil2,4,5, C. Nyandwi3, M. M. Manene6, and J. N. Muthama71Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, School of Science, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, Nyeri, Kenya 2Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France 3Department of Applied and Industrial Mathematics, School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya 4Environmental Research & Teaching Institute, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France 5Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics & Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, USA 6Department of Statistics and Operations Research, School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya 7Department of Meteorology, School of Physical Sciences, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
Received: 02 Mar 2015 – Accepted for review: 31 Mar 2015 – Discussion started: 20 Apr 2015
Abstract. The Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model described herein takes an integrated assessment approach to simulating global change. By using an endogenous economic growth module with physical and human capital accumulation, this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth, as economic activity intensifies greenhouse gas emissions that in turn cause economic damage due to climate change. Different types of fossil fuels and different technologies produce different volumes of carbon dioxide in combustion. The shares of different fuels and their future evolution are not known. We assume that the dynamics of hydrocarbon-based energy share and their replacement with renewable energy sources in the global energy balance can be modeled into the 21st century by use of logistic functions. Various climate change mitigation policy measures are considered. While many integrated assessment models treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, we consider abatement activities also as an investment in overall energy efficiency of the economy and decrease of overall carbon intensity of the energy system. The paper shows that these efforts help to reduce the volume of industrial carbon dioxide emissions, lower temperature deviations, and lead to positive effects in economic growth.
Ogutu, K. B. Z., D'Andrea, F., Ghil, M., Nyandwi, C., Manene, M. M., and Muthama, J. N.: Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 1: Abatement share and investment in low-carbon technologies, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 6, 819-863, doi:10.5194/esdd-6-819-2015, 2015.