Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case
I. A. Sudakov1 and S. A. Vakulenko21St. Petersburg State University of Technology and Design, Mathematics and Informatics Department, St. Petersburg, Russia 2Institute for Mechanical Engineering Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia
Received: 15 Mar 2012 – Accepted for review: 02 Apr 2012 – Discussion started: 04 Apr 2012
Abstract. The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedback coefficient connecting the methane concentration in atmosphere and temperature, and on the tundra permafrost methane pool.
Sudakov, I. A. and Vakulenko, S. A.: Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 235-257, doi:10.5194/esdd-3-235-2012, 2012.