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Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 617-647, 2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review Status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Impacts of future climate change on potential yields of major crops in China
Y. Yin, Q. Tang, and X. Liu
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

Abstract. Climate change may affect crop development and yield, and consequently cast a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency efforts. In this study we used the model projections of a couple of global gridded crop models (GGCMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the potential yields of the major crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize and soybean) over China. The GGCMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate data from 5 global climate models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 which were made available by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results show that the potential yields of rice may increase over a large portion of China. Climate change may benefit food productions over the high-altitude and cold regions where are outside current main agricultural area. However, the potential yield of maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in a large portion of the current main crop planting areas such as North China Plain. Development of new agronomic management strategy may be useful for coping with climate change in the areas with high risk of yield reduction.

Citation: Yin, Y., Tang, Q., and Liu, X.: Impacts of future climate change on potential yields of major crops in China, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 5, 617-647, doi:10.5194/esdd-5-617-2014, 2014.
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