Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 4, 1-24, 2013
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This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ESD.
Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models
A. Menon1,2, A. Levermann1,2, J. Schewe1, J. Lehmann1,2, and K. Frieler1
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
2Institute of Physics, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends.

Citation: Menon, A., Levermann, A., Schewe, J., Lehmann, J., and Frieler, K.: Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 4, 1-24, doi:10.5194/esdd-4-1-2013, 2013.
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