Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming M. Beenstock1, Y. Reingewertz1, and N. Paldor2 1Department of Economics, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus Campus, Jerusalem, Israel 2Fredy and Nadine Institute of Earth Sciences, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Edmond J. Safra campus, Givat Ram, Jerusalem, Israel
Received: 06 May 2012 – Accepted: 25 Jun 2012 – Published: 16 Jul 2012
Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the
anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to
which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations
raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the
methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since
during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and
solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas
greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd
differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings
share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically
independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar
irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar
irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially
cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not
statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the
other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had
a temporary effect on global temperature.
Citation: Beenstock, M., Reingewertz, Y., and Paldor, N.: Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 561-596, doi:10.5194/esdd-3-561-2012, 2012.
IF 3.062
SNIP 0.707
SJR 1.399
h5-index 13