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Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 201-234, 2012
www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/3/201/2012/
doi:10.5194/esdd-3-201-2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review Status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD). A final paper in ESD is not foreseen.
Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions
L. Batlle Bayer1, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk1,2, B. J. Strengers3, and J. G. van Minnen3
1IMAU – Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
2KNMI – Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands
3PBL – Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

Abstract. Ecosystem responses to a changing climate and human-induced climate forcings (e.g. deforestation) might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial climate response. Feedbacks may include the biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical feedbacks (e.g. albedo and hydrological cycle). Here, we first review the most important feedbacks and put them into the context of a conceptual framework, including the major processes and interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and climate. We explore potential regional feedbacks in four hot spots with pronounced potential changes in land-use/management and local climate: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, the relevant human-induced climate forcings and feedbacks were identified based on published literature.

When evapotranspiration is limited by a soil water deficit, heat waves in Europe are amplified (positive soil moisture-temperature feedback). Drought events in the Amazon lead to further rainfall reduction when water recycling processes are affected (positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback). In SSA, the adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems can modulate the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback. In contrast, future water shortage in South and Southeast Asia can turn the negative soil moisture-temperature feedback into a positive one.

Further research including advanced modeling strategies is needed to isolate the dominant processes affecting the strength and sign of the feedbacks. In addition, the socio-economic dimension needs to be considered in the ecosystems-climate system to include the essential role of human decisions on land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). In this context, enhanced integration between Earth System (ES) and Integrated Assessment (IA) modeling communities is strongly recommended.


Citation: Batlle Bayer, L., van den Hurk, B. J. J. M., Strengers, B. J., and van Minnen, J. G.: Regional feedbacks under changing climate and land-use conditions, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., 3, 201-234, doi:10.5194/esdd-3-201-2012, 2012.
 
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