Earth System Dynamics Discussions www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net 2190-4995 1 1 2010 10.5194/esdd-1-357-2010 http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/1/357/2010/ http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/1/357/2010/esdd-1-357-2010.html http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/1/357/2010/esdd-1-357-2010.pdf 357 384 2010-12-10 Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast C. F. Schleussner schleussner@pik-potsdam.de K. Frieler M. Meinshausen J. Yin A. Levermann Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany Physics Institute, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from MAGICC6. 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